Scottish holidaymakers are being reassured that their summer flights are unlikely to be cancelled.
Despite fears of a systemic jet fuel shortage in Europe due to ongoing conflict in the Gulf.
Tim Jeans, former commercial director at Ryanair and later managing director of Monarch Air, said that while airlines may trim schedules, full route cancellations are not expected—even with rising costs and ongoing conflict.
He said: "I don’t see a situation where flights will get cancelled because of the non-availability of fuel."
His comments follow warnings from Airports Council International, the trade body representing more than 600 airports, about a potential jet fuel crisis if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
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The organisation recently wrote to European commissioners for energy, transport, and tourism, stating that a prolonged closure of the strait could lead to a "systemic jet fuel shortage" across the EU.
Olivier Jankovec, director-general of Airports Council International, said: "The fact that we are entering the peak summer season is only adding to those concerns."
Jeans acknowledged that airlines are currently facing a "triple whammy," including soaring fuel prices tied to instability in the Middle East.
He continued: "That in turn is pushing up ticket prices, and the uncertainty around whether it is going to be possible to travel, plus the increase in prices is reducing demand.
"And so you have a situation where airlines are looking at their bookings for the next three months ahead and saying 'should we fly that flight, is it going to be profitable?’"
Despite these pressures, Jeans stressed that holidaymakers from Scotland should remain confident in their travel plans.
He said: "The airlines, particularly the holiday airlines, have got very robust bookings for May, June, and July.
"I don’t see really a possibility that for example somebody booked to go to Majorca or Malaga is going to find their flight cancelled.
"There may be some trimming of schedules which might mean a flight time alteration, but are they going to see their flight cancelled altogether? I think not."
Jeans explained that airlines operating multiple daily flights between the same destinations might reduce services if necessary.
He said: "They might possibly cut five down to four, they might cut four down to three even."
However, he ruled out widespread cancellations except in the Middle East, where an escalation of conflict could force airlines to ground flights for safety reasons
He also pointed out that many airlines have secured jet fuel supplies in advance and can source fuel from regions like the United States, which are not affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jeans said: "We can get jet fuel from places other than the Middle East, and there are changes now in the supply chain, bringing more aviation fuel from the US.
"I’m not saying there is no problem, that would be foolish to say that, but I think it is fair to say most airlines will be confident they could uplift enough fuel to fly the programmes they plan to fly."
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